Combining mitigation with reducing the financing gap for adaptation to climate change through a cap-and-charge scheme is effective and efficient. It can be shown through a value innovation canvas.
Benefits and Costs are directly related to Value Innovation of IMERS. It is perhaps best shown using the framework from the Blue Ocean Strategy.
The novel charge-and-cap scheme employed in IMERS is compared above with a traditional cap-and-trade emission trading scheme for shipping. The major value contributions in IMERS comes from:
Minimizing costs is crucial as international transport is key for trade and sustainable development. IMERS, a cap-and-charge scheme, will be significantly cheaper than cap-and-trade.
This is contrasted with the high costs for a hypothetical Cap-and-trade for shipping. For the above comparison, we have used the just announced parameters for the EU ETS for 2013-2020 (see section on Auctioning: 60% auctioning from 2013 onwards, etc).
The level of charge depends on ambition defined by a notional emission cap. Even for an ambitious 20-50 cap from 2005 the IMERS approach is easily affordable while delivering mitigation, adaptation and technology funding (as shown above).
We calculate that using a harmonized charge of under $10/tCO2, would suffice from 2010-2012 (equivalent to 30% of the forward carbon price of around $30/tCO2). This translates to $30/ton of fuel.
Detailed cost calculations and impact are provided in the table below for charges as % of carbon (CO2) market price, and impact on: fuel prices, shipping costs, and end customer.
Year |
% of C$ |
$/t fuel* |
Shipping $ |
Customer |
2012 |
30% |
$27 |
2% |
< 0.1% |
2020 |
46% |
$42 |
3% |
< 0.1% |
2035 |
70% |
$64 |
5% |
< 0.2% |
*For market data: $30/tCO2, $500 t/HFO.
Finally, administrative costs for the participating ship managers is very low. The total reporting effort is expected to be under 20 minutes per month for the submission of a consolidated report on fuel used by all the ships under management. If that approach proved unworkable for some ship managers or sections of shipping, an alternative approach based on the Bunker Delivery Notes (as required by MARPOL Annex VI) will also deliver low cost.
In summary, the hybrid scheme can be ambitious and affordable, while being achievable in short-term.
We estimate that the combination of the market mechanism, additional technical and operational industry improvements, including the mitigation programmes paid for by a portion of the funds raised, will reduce the emissions by 0.5% to 0.8% annually till 2050 (dependent on the split of funds). The total emission impact till 2100 would be more than halved due to the reduced growth and the effect of bringing forward step changes by up to 10 years.
Simultaneously, developing countries will benefit from the adaptation financing and the shipping industry from the improvements in the sector.
Environmental benefits are measured in emissions avoided within and mitigated outside of the shipping sector, expressed in GtCO2.
The table and picture below provide the estimates of the significant benefits of IMERS.
By 2050, GtCO2 |
2051-2100, GtCO2 |
|
Emission avoidance: |
12 |
40 |
Emission mitigation (offset): |
18 |
24 |
Total environment: |
30 |
64 |
The picture shows the mid-2007 calculations. In Dec 2007 the IMO estimated the emissions at around 1GtCO2 for 2005, effectively doubling the previous estimate. Therefore the numbers should be multiplied by 2.
Benefits to developing countries start with the common but differentiated responsibility principle comprehensively fulfilled, at both collection and distribution points.
The scheme is also